Time for Brinkmanship? Or is there another way of dealing with Putin? 

In all but name Russia has invaded Ukraine, a sovereign country. Russian President Putin even old EU Commission President Barroso that his forces could conquer Kiev within two weeks. These words were spoken almost to the month 100 years after the beginning of the First World War and 75 years after the start of World War II.

Putin's aggressive action ought to be firmly opposed while a way out of a looming war with Russia must be found as a matter of urgency. At this week's NATO summit in Wales both NATO and the EU as well as the West's crucial powers, the US and Germany, are expected to somehow find a solution that keeps the West united, reassures NATO's eastern European members and, as the Washington Post has put it in a recent editorial, "make Mr. Putin pay for his aggression." In the same paper Kurt Volker, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, has asked the western alliance "to make some tough decisions and push back militarily against Russia."

This is dangerous brinkmanship par excellence. Very little is to be gained by walking to the brink of a fully fledged military confrontation with Russia. Gloomily Putin reminded the world only last week that Russia is still one of the world's major nuclear powers. As during the Cold War, a nuclear exchange of even limited extent would largely destroy the countries NATO is supposed to protect  (and no doubt Ukraine would not survive either). And as during the Cold War, with regard to conventional (non-nuclear) warfare NATO is no match for the Russian armies either.

British General Sir Richard Shirreff, a former NATO commander, told the BBC on August 27 that the alliance would be "hard-pressed" to "counter any form of Russian adventurism," particularly on land. NATO, he said, would find it very difficult to put a division (c. 20.000 soldiers) "out of the door in quick time." The Alliance's envisaged hectic creation of a 4000-strong rapid-reaction-force that could deploy to eastern Europe within 48 hours confirms the General's doubts about NATO's military preparedness.

So what is to be done apart from the continued reliance on further severe economic and financial sanctions on Russia? It never hurts to put oneself into the shoes of the other side. Russia clearly viewed NATO massive expansion of 1999 and 2004 as a threat. It also regards the rotating stationing of NATO troops in eastern Europe as a violation of the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act which forbids NATO to base significant forces permanently there. The downfall of Ukrainian President Yanukovych, a democratically elected politician, Putin views as a western orchestrated constitutional coup. Ukrainian (and Georgian) membership of NATO and the EU is regarded as an unacceptable security threat to Russia.

Although the West views all of the above points rather differently, Moscow's sensitivities have to be taken into account if a war with Russia is to be avoided.  Punishing Putin or propping up NATO's military presence in eastern Europe are hardly like to de-escalate tension. Quite the contrary.

Instead: what is wrong with attempting to arrive at a deal with Russia that Ukraine will not join NATO or the EU for at least the next 20 years or so? Of course, Moscow has to agree to not force Kiev to join Russia's Eurasian Customs Union either. The much talked about new Ukrainian constitution which would give the country a much greater federal structure also ought to be realized as soon as possible. Indirectly this would give Russia a certain say about some of the regions in eastern Ukraine but this compromise might well be worth pursuing, if it prevents the partition of Ukraine.

Last not least, a mutual ceasefire and the subsequent de-militarization of eastern Ukraine under UN supervision has to be agreed between all waring parties, including Putin of course. That way the Russian President could save face and proclaim victory and happily NATO and the West could do the same without having fired a shot.

In fact, it's two minutes to midnight. With the exception of the Cuban Missile Crisis there have only been a few other situations when the outbreak of war between Moscow and the West has been so imminent. Now is not the time to embark on brinkmanship. Instead, it is high time to resort to constructive statesmanship.


Klaus Larres